The Global Knowledge Economy
A. New Knowledge (Amount of new knowledge. Rate of increase of new knowledge.)
Knowledge is a description of how to do something, that is how to cause change. Knowledge describes how something is organized and how to cause change with it. There is at present no way to measure the amount of knowledge which humans and the machines which they have originated possess. The rate of increase of knowledge seems to be increasing dramatically with the use of computers and communications. One indicator of the pace of change is that the speed of computers doubles about every 18 months, although there may be some upper limit due to physics limitations.
B. Networks (Number of people on Internet)
Current estimates of the number of humans connected to the Internet is approximately 40 million world wide. This and much more information is included in findings of fact by a panel of three Federal judges of what the Internet is and its history in ACLU vs. Janet Reno (ED Penn.,1996). This number is growing rapidly. It is expected to increase dramatically when the computer and the television are combined into one inexpensive box in the home or office connected to the Internet and other networks, both local and global. Much technology and standardization must be worked out before this can happen. When it does, a substantial percentage of the citizens of the Knowledge Civilization will be connected directly to each other, and the knowledge economy will greatly increase the gross world product (GWP).
The two main obstacles to establishing this economy of plenty for much of the world are technology and governments that want to curtail and control their citizens' communications with other people in the world. The pressure for successful commerce will eventually break down these governmental barriers, as it did to accomplish the birth of the Knowledge Civilization with the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The CIA World Fact Book under World, Economy, Overview states:
"Externally, the nation-state, as a bedrock economic-political institution, is steadily losing control over international flows of people, goods, funds, and technology. Internally, the central government in a number of cases is losing control over resources as separatist regional movements - typically based on ethnicity - gain momentum, e.g., in successor states of the former Soviet Union, in the former Yugoslavia, and in India... The addition of nearly 100 million people each year to an overcrowded globe is exacerbating the problems of pollution, decertification, underemployment, epidemics and famine. Because of their own internal problems, the industrialized countries have inadequate resources to deal effectively with the poorer areas of the world, which at least from the economic point of view, are becoming further marginalized."
The weakening of the nation-state and the increasing desperation of the less developed areas of the world provide a fertile ground for growth of the global knowledge economy. Free flow of knowledge and goods and services between individual and group creators and consumers without reference to local, provincial or national boundaries makes the largest market place the world has ever seen. The United States economy, the European Union, and the Pacific Rim economies are dwarfed by such a global market place. Computer technology will begin to make a bridge between an individual's idea and new steps to solutions in the global knowledge base. It will also assist in producing, marketing, delivering and paying for products and services based on such individual's ideas. When this happens, more and more people in the world will be able to contribute new knowledge they have created to the global knowledge base and earn support from the global knowledge economy.
Population control will also be a result. The best population control is prosperity. If a substantial part of the world's people are connected to the Internet, and are gaining support from the global knowledge economy and are enjoying a rich, varied and fulfilled life from participating in it, the rate of increase of population in the global Knowledge Civilization will decline.
C. Global Knowledge Base
The Internet may be considered the global knowledge base. It originated in the United States of America as a governmental and academic network. Many governmental and university research computers around the world are connected to the Internet, so that much of the world's knowledge is available to anyone who wishes to search for it and use it. However, the knowledge is not stored in any sort of universal language. It is mostly in technical language or pictures and sounds which require technical interpretation. Also it is hard to find knowledge on a given subject.
In the future a true global knowledge base will be developed which is based on a language that describes all knowledge, and is searchable. If someone wants to know how to do something, they will be able to ask the global knowledge base, which will search its memory, and report on existing knowledge of how to accomplish the requested result. The Human Genome Project provides an initial model for such a knowledge base in a limited area of knowledge.
If there are holes in the knowledge, steps from an initial condition to a goal where there is not yet knowledge of how to take those steps, the holes in the knowledge will be reported. If someone creates new knowledge, it can be submitted to the knowledge base to see if it already exists. If not, if it fills a hole, the new knowledge can be added to the knowledge base and the creator will receive credit for having invented it, perhaps receiving a small payment each time it is used. In this manner the knowledge base will grow dramatically faster than genetic evolution could accomplish with a succession of living generations.
Humans and machines originated by humans all over the globe will be constantly submitting new knowledge and asking about the use of knowledge. The global knowledge base will grow rapidly.
Knowledge is the description of how to cause change. In this sense knowledge is power. The Knowledge Civilization will need to find ways for all this power to exist freely in the Civilization without destroying the Civilization. That will be a major challenge to the governments and culture of the Knowledge Civilization. The human experience with the nuclear arms race in the middle of the Twentieth Century may be instructive and hopeful. People may in general realize that attempts to use such power against other humans to control the Knowledge Civilization or destroy it, will destroy the First Flower before it has a chance to spawn other Flowers of the Universe. To support such destructive use of the knowledge in the global knowledge base is suicide. The global ethos may keep large groups from supporting those who would abuse the power of knowledge. The massiveness of the communications would probably insure that no one could keep such plans secret from the world for long. Technical safe-guards may be built into the knowledge base so that knowledge of such plans would be quickly broadcast around the global communication system. The global ethos against selfish grabbing of control and the resultant global suicide might stop would be aggressors.
Knowledge is like fire. Humans and the machines they originate will have to learn to live successfully with it and flourish with it.
D. Economic Research
The global knowledge economy is a new kind of economy. Instead of a few people controlling scarce resources, which are sold to the many, the many are both creating and consuming new knowledge and the products of new knowledge. Knowledge is reusable and there is an unlimited amount of it to discover. Therefore the knowledge economy is an economy of plenty. It produces more and better ways to do things for people faster, less expensively and with less energy use, while developing more sources of energy to cause consumer-desired change.
This new type of global economy is in its infancy and is not well understood. Research into the dynamics of this economy and the consequences of public policy on the knowledge economy need to be developed. One suggestion is a model of the knowledge economy based on each person being both a creator and a consumer (a seller and a buyer) and having perfect knowledge of all products and services offered. If this type of economy were allowed to run for a period of time what would be the distribution of wealth at the end of the time? Would the gross product increase as new knowledge was created and consumed? In this sense would the knowledge economy be an economy of plenty? If every citizen started out with the same amount of money or value, would all citizens thrive, or would there be a quick accumulation of wealth in a few? Would all citizens be able to maintain a moderate standard of living, while some did much better? What would be the wealth distribution due to wealth creation? Would redistribution of wealth be necessary for the knowledge economy to continue indefinitely? What parameters contribute to answering these questions in various ways?
Once the pure model was developed and analyzed, then various restrictions could be placed on the pure model to make it more like real life. People could begin with widely different amounts of value. Does the model end up the same way? Is it independent of initial conditions? If not, which ones are critical?
Parameters such as identifying ethnic groups and niche markets could be added. Advertising to such groups could be added. A variety of other business parameters could be added to the model to make it as close to the real global market place as possible and see what impact the various parameters had on the ultimate ability of the global knowledge economy to sustain itself and the citizens of the global Knowledge Civilization.
E. General Health Of The Economy
The gross world product (GWP) - purchasing power parity - was $30.7 Trillion USDollars (1994 estimate) 1995 CIA World Fact Book. This was an increase of 3% in 1994 compared to 2% in 1993. The average Gross World Product per citizen was $5,400 per year for every man, woman and child around the Earth.
The impact of humans on the global environment and on species extinction was much discussed in 1996. However, no general consensus has developed about what humans and human civilization should do about it, or how much real impact humans have on the environment compared to non-human influences.
F. Property Rights
The Internet has had an impact on property rights, especially copyright and intellectual property law. There is no jurisdiction that covers the entire Internet. Restrictions or protections of property rights in one country are freely ignored in others. Those that do not participate in the commerce of the Internet, because of such restriction sometimes lose out completely on having their property purchased.
There is no global agreement on the right to own private property, or how to protect this right. In the individualistic culture of the Knowledge Civilization private property ownership and enforceable private property rights seem essential to the operation of a free market place and individual incentive. Much work has to be done to rewrite property law for the Knowledge Civilization based on a global knowledge economy.
G. Money - Media of Exchange
There are many newly developing media of exchange. There will be more. In an economy of billions of creators and consumers, there will be many new media of exchange created to suit the individual buyers and sellers, their technologies and their financiers. Global credit cards, untraceable digicash, all kinds of barter and new forms of exchange not yet dreamed will characterize the global knowledge economy. This year Netscape announced Livepay as a secure system for credit card purchases. It remains to be seen if this will be a main system accepted by the citizens for buying and selling over the Internet. Other forms of exchange not on the Internet include smart cards and debit cards, as well as traditional currency. Currency and securities are traded and transferred between buyers and sellers all over the world by electronic means. Electronic Funds Transfer is a routine occurrence involving transfer of billions of dollars every day.
H. Travel and Transportation
There are 25,364 ships in the world (over 1000 GRT) totalling 435,458,296 GRT/697,171,651 DWT. Air travel is increasing. If goods are to be deliverable from producers any where in the world to customers any where in the world the transportation system must be able to efficiently support such trade. Increasingly physical assets will remain close to the consumer and knowledge of how to create products will be transmitted around the world. An example is the Wall Street Journal which is created in New York City and beaned by satellite to small production facilities located around the United States. Papers are printed and distributed locally. In the future products such as clothing may also be created anywhere in the world. The knowledge to produce them would then be transmitted over the Internet, and the clothing would be produced in small flexible factories located near the consumer anywhere in the world.
Continue with Section 4. Harmonious Natural Fulfillment of the Individual
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